Lean
Take Seattle Mariners -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Moderate evidence
Historical context
61% win rate across 132 comparable spots.
Recent form
Seattle Mariners 4-6 — neither hot nor cold.
Market pricing
Edge of +7.3% versus current price.
Supported byhistorical context · market pricing
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Seattle Mariners
Why we like this bet
- ✓Seattle Mariners ride a 3-game win streak into the matchup.
- ✓Seattle Mariners lead the season series 1-0 (1 meetings).
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +7.3% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
Nothing in the current data set argues meaningfully against this side.
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 132 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Seattle Mariners have run roughly to expectation (61%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 47% of comparable road-side spots across 130 games.
Road side
Cincinnati Reds
130 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
47%
Avg margin
-0.2
Avg total
8.9
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.9 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-07-21@ Seattle MarinersL 0-8
26-07-19@ Colorado RockiesW 9-6
26-07-18@ Colorado RockiesL 3-10
26-07-18@ Colorado RockiesW 7-2
26-07-02@ Milwaukee BrewersW 7-2
26-07-02@ Milwaukee BrewersL 2-4
26-06-30@ Milwaukee BrewersL 2-7
26-06-29@ Milwaukee BrewersL 3-5
26-06-28@ Pittsburgh PiratesL 4-9
26-06-27@ Pittsburgh PiratesW 9-7
26-06-26@ Pittsburgh PiratesW 6-4
26-06-21@ New York YankeesW 4-1
Home side
Seattle Mariners
132 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
61%
Avg margin
+0.6
Avg total
7.8
Average game total
Spots like this average 7.8 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-07-21vs Cincinnati RedsW 8-0
26-07-19vs San Francisco GiantsW 6-3
26-07-19vs San Francisco GiantsW 4-3
26-07-18vs San Francisco GiantsL 0-7
26-07-05vs Toronto Blue JaysW 4-0
26-07-04vs Toronto Blue JaysW 11-0
26-07-04vs Toronto Blue JaysL 0-2
26-07-03vs Los Angeles AngelsW 1-0
26-07-01vs Los Angeles AngelsW 8-3
26-06-30vs Los Angeles AngelsW 6-2
26-06-21vs Boston Red SoxW 3-1
26-06-21vs Boston Red SoxL 1-5
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Owns the season seriesmedium
Seattle Mariners lead the season series 1-0 (1 meetings).
Head-to-head this season
Reds
0
Mariners
1
- Last meeting: Seattle Mariners 8, Cincinnati Reds 0
Away
Cincinnati Reds
Overall45-54
Last 104-6
On the road23-26
After a loss25-28
Scoring (last 10)4.2 for / 4.9 against
Home
Seattle Mariners
Overall51-50
Last 104-6
At home30-21
After a loss25-25
Scoring (last 10)3.8 for / 4.4 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
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