Lean
Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 at -110
Research scorecard
How strong is the case?
Moderate evidence
Historical context
64% win rate across 132 comparable spots.
Recent form
Milwaukee Brewers 6-4 — neither hot nor cold.
Market pricing
Edge of +7.7% versus current price.
Supported byhistorical context · market pricing
Note: 3 dimensions omitted due to missing data.
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
Why we like this bet
- ✓Milwaukee Brewers (63-37) own the stronger overall record — New York Mets sit at 42-59.
- ✓Milwaukee Brewers ride a 4-game win streak into the matchup.
- ✓Milwaukee Brewers lead the season series 1-0 (1 meetings).
- ✓Our number on this side carries an estimated +7.7% edge versus the current price.
Reasons to be cautious
The case against this bet
Nothing in the current data set argues meaningfully against this side.
How similar teams performed›
HISTORICAL EDGE IS NEUTRAL
Across 132 comparable spots in 2025–2026, Milwaukee Brewers have run roughly to expectation (64%) — no strong directional signal.
CounterpointOpponent has won 41% of comparable road-side spots across 133 games.
Road side
New York Mets
133 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
41%
Avg margin
-0.4
Avg total
8.8
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.8 combined points.
Filters: road games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-07-20@ Milwaukee BrewersL 3-8
26-07-19@ Philadelphia PhilliesW 6-1
26-07-18@ Philadelphia PhilliesL 1-6
26-07-16@ Philadelphia PhilliesW 4-1
26-07-06@ Atlanta BravesW 7-6
26-07-05@ Atlanta BravesW 10-9
26-07-05@ Atlanta BravesL 3-14
26-07-03@ Atlanta BravesL 3-5
26-07-01@ Toronto Blue JaysL 3-9
26-06-30@ Toronto Blue JaysW 3-0
26-06-29@ Toronto Blue JaysL 1-2
26-06-21@ Philadelphia PhilliesL 2-6
Home side
Milwaukee Brewers
132 comparable spots · 2025–2026 seasons
Win rate
64%
Avg margin
+1.3
Avg total
8.5
Average game total
Spots like this average 8.5 combined points.
Filters: home games only
Show 12 most recent spots
26-07-20vs New York MetsW 8-3
26-07-19vs Miami MarlinsW 3-1
26-07-18vs Miami MarlinsW 8-6
26-07-17vs Miami MarlinsW 2-1
26-07-02vs Cincinnati RedsL 2-7
26-07-02vs Cincinnati RedsW 4-2
26-06-30vs Cincinnati RedsW 7-2
26-06-29vs Cincinnati RedsW 5-3
26-06-28vs Chicago CubsL 3-4
26-06-27vs Chicago CubsL 2-8
26-06-26vs Chicago CubsW 6-2
26-06-18vs Cleveland GuardiansL 2-4
NotesATS and Over/Under rates not shown — historical line data is not in scope yet.
What the season says›
Signals from the data
Owns the season seriesmedium
Milwaukee Brewers lead the season series 1-0 (1 meetings).
Head-to-head this season
Mets
0
Brewers
1
- Last meeting: Milwaukee Brewers 8, New York Mets 3
Away
New York Mets
Overall42-59
Last 104-6
On the road21-31
After a loss22-36
Scoring (last 10)4.3 for / 5 against
Home
Milwaukee Brewers
Overall63-37
Last 106-4
At home33-18
After a loss20-17
Scoring (last 10)5.3 for / 4.6 against
Sources: ESPN team schedule · ESPN team standings · Current season only
How the market sees it›
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